Politics: Trump the Peacemaker
Trump's Immediate Ceasefire Demand: President Donald Trump urged Russia and Ukraine to “make a DEAL” and stop fighting immediately at the current battle lines, suggesting that the war should end with the forces stopping “where they are.”
Refusal of Key Military Aid: The meeting was disappointing for President Zelenskiy, as Trump refused to provide Tomahawk missiles and other advanced military aid that Ukraine views as necessary to force Russia into serious negotiations.
Ambiguity and Putin Proximity: Trump, who had spoken with Putin the day before and plans to meet him again in Hungary, equivocated on military aid and backed away from efforts to impose sanctions on Russia, while European and NATO leaders subsequently promised Zelenskiy increased support to pressure Moscow.
Zooming Out: The Big Picture
President Trump's current foreign policy pivot is centered on a transactional, “peace through strength” approach, using direct, high-pressure, personal diplomacy to enforce immediate ceasefires and set battlefield terms. This strategy, seen in both the Gaza deal and his demand for an immediate halt in Ukraine at current lines, leverages his personal relationships and the threat of withholding crucial support to compel adversaries and allies toward a swift resolution that prioritizes ending violence over addressing underlying territorial disputes or strategic objectives, while framing outcomes in ways that allow each side to claim progress toward their stated goals.
Tech: China’s Chip-maker Cambricon Sees Explosive Growth
Dramatic Financial Surge: Cambricon reported a 14-fold surge in quarterly revenue to 1.73 billion yuan (approx $237 million USD) and swung to a 567 million yuan profit.
Key Beneficiary of US Sanctions: The company, often called “China's Nvidia,” is capitalizing on US technology sanctions that have restricted Nvidia's advanced AI chips from the Chinese market.
Domestic AI Reliance: Cambricon has become a central part of Beijing's push for domestic AI chip alternatives, with major Chinese tech firms like Alibaba and DeepSeek increasingly sourcing chips locally.
Market Impact and Outlook: The revenue jump is a clear indication of how US sanctions are reshaping the global semiconductor landscape. The company's shares have roughly doubled since July, and it forecasts a substantial full-year revenue of 5–7 billion yuan (up from 1.2 billion yuan last year).
Zooming Out: The Big Picture
US technology sanctions against advanced AI chips, culminating in the restriction of Nvidia's most powerful products, have created a protected domestic market for Chinese firms like Cambricon, which reported a 14-fold surge in quarterly revenue and swung from a net loss to a profit of 567 million yuan. This dramatic financial growth reflects Beijing's push for AI chip self-sufficiency, as Chinese tech giants from Alibaba to DeepSeek increasingly rely on domestic alternatives amid restricted access to Nvidia's advanced accelerators and government discouragement of available options like the H20. The situation illustrates how US export controls are reshaping the global semiconductor landscape by accelerating the development of an indigenous Chinese AI chip industry, though questions remain about whether domestic alternatives can match the performance and efficiency of restricted cutting-edge chips in the long term.
Finance: Jon Gray of Blackstone Warns of Potential of AI Disruption
Underestimation of AI's Disruptive Potential: Blackstone's President Jonathan Gray warns that Wall Street is underestimating AI's power to disrupt entire industries, shifting the firm's focus to AI risk assessment as the top priority in evaluating deals.
Focus on Legacy Business Threat: Gray believes investors' concerns about an “AI bubble” are overshadowing the profound threat AI poses to legacy businesses, particularly rules-based sectors such as legal, accounting, and transaction processing.
Prioritized Investment Strategy: Blackstone has formalized its approach by requiring AI impacts on the first pages of investment memos and has passed on certain investments (like some software and call-center deals) due to AI vulnerabilities, while simultaneously investing heavily in AI infrastructure (data centers and utilities).
Zooming Out: The Bigger Picture
The current investment play in AI is the buildout phase, focused on funding the massive data centers, power, and infrastructure needed for compute-heavy models, which continues to surprise to the upside. This high-capital demand is where private equity and private credit thrives, deploying capital into stable, long-term assets, exemplified by Blue Owl providing private credit to Meta to finance its data centers. This infrastructure must be built regardless of market fluctuations, making it a lower-risk, stable return opportunity during the AI revolution's foundation-laying stage.
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